Can a Repeat Cleveland VS Golden State Championship Be Avoided?

Now that the NBA Playoff race has been reduced to eight teams going into the 2nd round, it's hard to imagine anything other then the Cleveland Cavaliers facing off against the Golden State Warriors for the 3rd consecutive season in the NBA Finals. Both franchises were the only teams to sweep their competitors in 4 games and pretty well dominated the court, the Warriors especially. Fans and franchises alike would all like to see the same thing - A different NBA Finals match up. As entertaining as it was to watch the Finals go down to Game 7 and watch Lebron James rise to the basketball god level that he did, give us a break from the drama between Lebron and Steph Curry! Please, great basketball gods!

In this article, I want to break down the odds of another team rising to the occasion and giving us a fresh face of NBA Finals entertainment. Trust me, NBA fans, there is some hope.

100 to 1 ~ Utah knocks Golden State out in Round 2. 

The Prospect is there. It's a slim chance, but there is hope nonetheless. Utah's stiff #1 defense has kept them in a lot of games throughout the course of the season, and helped them beat the Los Angeles Clippers in round 1. But the rise of Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood, stepping up to the challenge on offense in the playoffs, have breathed a new life into Utah. Rudy Gobart has led the charge on defense, placing himself in position to win 1st Team All-NBA Defensive honors, while averaging 2.6 blocks a game throughout the season.

Utah's held Golden State to an average of 11.1 points under their season average through the 3 games the teams faced off against each other in the regular season. However, Utah hasn't been able to score back against the Warriors themselves, averaging just 92.7 points per match up, including a dismal 74 point showing December 20th.

If the Jazz want to see this happen, they're going to have to score more then they did in the series against the Clippers, continue to hold the Golden State offense in check, and maximize the turnovers. It's a long shot, but it's a possibility.

50 to 1 ~ Houston defeats Golden State in the West Championship Series.

The odds are slim from two angles. First, Houston has to knock San Antonio out of round 2, and then they need to beat Golden State. It's a long shot, even with James Harden playing at an MVP level this season. But let's forget about round 2, and assume they're playing the Warriors here in this series. Houston has the 2nd ranked offense in the NBA, behind Golden State alone. Unfortunately, their defense is ranked 26th, which is actually 15 spots behind the Warriors defense.

In the 4 games these squads matched off against each other through the regular season, Golden State averaged 7 points better then Houston with a 118-111 point game average. Houston won the first match-up back on December 1st, 132-127, in Golden State's backyard. Since then, even through 2 games in Houston, the Rockets haven't been able to come close against the Warriors, loosing by 17, 7 and 9.

If the Rockets want to give Golden State a run for their money, its going to have to be top notch games from everyone on the Houston roster. There aren't really any key match ups that point to the advantage of Houston. It's a slim chance.

40 to 1 ~ Boston hands Cleveland their tickets home in the East Championship Series. 

Boston is fired up. Led by an emotionally charged Isaiah Thomas, who is suffering the loss of his sister to a tragic accident, Boston currently rides a 5 game winning streak after falling behind to Chicago 2-0 in the first round. With a lot of deep shot talent in Thomas, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder, Boston is a fast break team that relies on their speed to get quick points while capitalizing on their opponents mistakes. They play efficiently, tirelessly, and quickly.

They faced Cleveland 4 times through the regular season. The fast break offense doesn't work very well against the bigger, more physical Cavaliers. Cleveland went 3-1 against the Celtics, averaging a 7.8 point margin over the win column, recently humiliating them April 1st with a 114-91 spanking.

Boston's defense needs to keep them in the game. If they can step up to the next level, and keep Cleveland under 110 points, they can outscore the Cavs and give themselves a serious shot at winning the series. However, seeing how the team struggled against the Bulls, there really isn't much hope in seeing this one happen.

25 to 1 ~ Toronto beats Cleveland in Round 2. 

Toronto is a big physical team who really handed it to Milwaukee, a strong defensive team with 2 huge defenders lurking on it. Knocking them out in 6 games took some serious work, but it goes to show how well Toronto can handle defensive teams. Staying relatively balance with the 10th ranked offense and the 8th ranked defense in the league, the Raptors have 2 huge offensive playmakers in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and another duo of top notch defenders in Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas.

Cleveland handled Toronto throughout the regular season, going 3-1 over 4 games while staying perfect in Canada. However, the margins are close. Cleveland won by 3, 4 and 4, respectively, and lost by 15. The average margin between the two squads is 1 point in Toronto's favor, and against Cleveland's season averages 4 points, again, in the Raptors favor.

If there is a team that can go toe to toe with Cleveland outside of their division, it's Toronto. However, I still think they need more firepower to have a serious chance at winning a 7 game series against the Cavaliers. It makes an interesting series to monitor at the very least.

15 to 1 ~ Washington dethrones Cleveland in the East Championship Series. 

Washington is a good bit closer to Cleveland then a lot of people like to give them credit for. They played a seven game series throughout the regular season, and Cleveland had the edge 4-3. John Wall, Markieff Morris and Bradley Beal are serious offensive threats who can produce big numbers once they get going, and Marcin Gortat is solid in the paint and very well utilized. They are a threat from the three point line and have the ability to fast break on turnovers and torch their opponents with not only quick dunks but deep threes.

Cleveland struggled keeping the explosive trio of Morris, Wall and Beal in check, keeping Lebron and teammate Kyrie Irving constantly on the edge. Cleveland won by margins of 6, 15, 11 and 5, while loosing always by double digits.

I think that the Wizards can run this series, assuming they can knock Boston out round 2, to seven games easily. They have match ups with Wall on Irving and Beal on JR Smith. However, I don't see Lebron choking in the playoffs any time soon, and that's why the odds are against the Wizards on this one.

1 to 2 ~ San Antonio thrashes Golden State in the West Championship Series. 

San Antonio's success can only be credited to a very stiff defense. Ranked 2nd in the NBA by averaging 98.1 points per game, the Spurs are a team that rely on constant rebounding, strong defense and playing conservative and consistent offense. Averaging just 23.5 triple point shots per game, Kawhi Leonard has become the new star to this squad. Not only playing strong on defense, Leonard averages 25.5 points per game, and only takes 17 shots a game on average. LaMarcus Aldridge is still a strong weapon on both sides of the ball, and the Spurs are the other 60+ win team in the NBA behind the Warriors (61-21).

And here's why San Antonio is actually the favorites in this match up. They dominated Golden State in two of the three match ups this regular season. They won Game 1 by 29, and Game 2 by 22. Golden State finally caught up and thrashed them March 29th, 110-98. That's an average margin of 12 points pointing in the Spurs favor. Against Golden State's season averages, that's a margin of 25.7 points that the Warriors have to surmount.

The Spurs can't change the gameplan against Golden State. They need to focus on what they do best - control the ball, keep scoring points and don't let up. Golden State is at the mercy of San Antonio.

So to sum things up, I believe Golden State is a "Super Team" because they lack competition in their division, and don't play quality teams in the league often enough. Golden State has played a total of 10 regular season games against the three other teams left in the Western Conference Playoff Bracket, Cleveland has played 13. I think San Antonio has a much better team this season and should face the Cavs in the Finals to shake things up a little bit. It's exciting to think about.